What is the cause of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
When Ukraine was still part of the Soviet Union in the 1950s, a rift crystallized between the country and its Russian neighbor. It was around the Crimea. The leader of the Soviet Union party, Nikita Khrushchev, who himself came from Ukraine, presented Crimea on the occasion of the 300th anniversary of Russian-Ukrainian unity. Many Russians, including Putin, regret this gift to this day.
At least since Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the relationship between Russia and Ukraine has become muddled. Despite its independence, Ukraine has always been economically and financially highly dependent on Russia. It has always sought its identity between the western orientation towards the European Union and NATO and the historical relations with the eastern neighboring country. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the main points of contention between the two countries were the division of the Black Sea Fleet, the status of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, and gas debts.
The traditional Russian Black Sea Fleet is a state within a state in Crimea. Their main base, the city of Sevastopol, was a restricted area until 1991, even for the inhabitants of the peninsula, where the Soviet Navy could do as it pleased. This mentality has always been ubiquitous, along with the deep conviction that the city, the fleet, and therefore Crimea must be Russian.
Since the end of the Soviet Union, natural gas trade between Russia and Ukraine has been regularly contested in the territory of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a loose federation of twelve constituent republics of the former Soviet Union. Ukraine imports natural gas and is one of the largest buyers of the Russian natural gas group Gazprom. It is the most important transit country for Russian natural gas exports to Europe. There were several layoffs because the states were arguing over terms. On the Russian side, Gazprom is trying to improve its economic results by raising prices for shipments of natural gas to the CIS. At the same time, Gazprom has an interest in seizing Ukrainian natural gas pipelines to better control transportation.
The “Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership” in which Russia recognized Ukraine as an independent state, the 1997 “Black Sea Fleet Agreement” and the 1998 “Economic Cooperation Treaty” led to the settlement of Russian disputes and territorial claims. Ukraine's "Western rapprochement" by joining the GUAM (Georgia-Ukraine-Ukraine-Azerbaijan-Moldova Organization for Democracy and Economic Development, 1997) and membership in the World Trade Organization in 2008 has further clouded relations with Russia.
In 2009, then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wrote an open letter to Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko. Medvedev blames Yushchenko and his government for escalating bilateral tensions. He sees Ukrainian arms shipments to Georgia, Ukraine's efforts to join NATO, and separate it from Russia in the energy sector as anti-Russian actions.
Russia has always had claims to Ukraine - regionally, economically, and politically. As the country moved closer to the west, it saw its influence waning. In the current conflict of 2021, Russia is now trying to secure and expand its sphere of influence. Under the renewed escalation of the spring, Russia deployed a large contingent of about 100,000 soldiers to the border with Ukraine. Putin threatened that in the event of another increase in hostilities in the Donbas, Russia would take military measures to protect its citizens.
In July 2021, Putin published an article in which he emphasized the unity of the Russian and Ukrainian (as well as Belarusian) peoples. This clearly shows Russia's territorial claims in Ukraine. The dual state is a historical coincidence. The Kremlin spokesman emphasized that the article was also the basis for discussion about the borders within the CIS. Putin accuses the Ukrainian leadership of foreign domination of the West, of Russia-phobia, and of forcing it to make Ukrainian specifically target the Russian-speaking population of the Donbas. Constant violations of the Minsk agreement made him think: “Kyiv simply does not need the Donbas,” Putin said... Political scientists see this as a threat: if Kyiv does not upgrade the Moscow-led separatist Donetsk and Luhansk governments to full negotiating partners, Russia will revitalize its policy in this direction. According to Russian political scientist and correspondent Andrei Palin from Moscow, such an association in Crimea would be a possibility.
As the conflict escalated again in November 2021, Putin made it clear repeatedly that he would not tolerate any eastern expansion of NATO. He demands guarantees that NATO will not accept Ukraine's entry into its alliance. Both NATO, US President Biden, and the European Union have pledged to support Ukraine in the event of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his call for his country to join NATO and asks the Western community to support it in the conflict with Russia.